What Recessions? It's a Wonderful Life

What Recessions? It's a Wonderful Life

By Elliott Wave International

Fund managers see no risk of a U.S. recession. Have they over-indulged on the eggnog?

"I don't have your money. It's in Tom's house...and Fred's house." This is a quote from George Bailey, the fictional bank manager in the 1946 classic movie, It's a Wonderful Life. George was replying to customers of the bank who were demanding their money back. Unfortunately, the deposits had been invested, and the bank did not have enough money to pay everyone out. As I have said to my 14-year-old daughter every year over the past decade when we settle down to watch this feel-good Christmas movie, it's probably the simplest, and therefore best, lesson about understanding the complexities of the fixed-fractional banking system. (As you can imagine, this just exacerbates the fact that, in her now-teenage eyes, I am boring, embarrassing dad.)

George Bailey did not expect all his customers to demand their money back at once. It may be a fictional story, but it accurately reflects the complacent psychology of financial institutions as an economic cycle tops out. The latest example of such complacency comes from the most recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey. Expectations that global growth will improve in the next year jumped to a net 29% of respondents in December, the biggest two-month gain on record, and a big turnaround from the middle of the year when there was intense fear of a global recession. The survey shows that fund managers now see the least risk of a recession since the middle of 2009. That was, of course, when the U.S. was already in recession, despite central banks' machinations to inject liquidity into the financial system. The Fed has again begun pumping billions of dollars into the system since September, but the difference is that the U.S. has not experienced a recession as it did in 2008-2009. Are people just blindly accepting that the Fed will be able to keep the stock market propped up? Perhaps.

Indeed, some investors believe that because the yield curve has turned positive again, then all is well and there's no need to worry. On the contrary, the chart below shows that when the yield curve inverts and then turns positive, it is precisely the time to worry that a recession may be dead ahead.

It's a Wonderful Life ends with George Bailey realizing that there are much more important things in life than business. By this time next year, currently cock-a-hoop (adj.: boastfully, if not defiantly, elated) investors might be feeling the same way.

It's a commonly held misconception that a positive yield curve swing is a good sign for the economy, but the evidence proves otherwise. Want to see EWI's President, Bob Prechter, tackle and disprove other commonly held beliefs that could hinder your investing? Good!

Get instant, free access to Prechter's speech to the International Federation of Technical Analysts. It shows you “What Really Moves the Markets.” Watch Now

High-Confidence Stock Trading Opportunities

How to Spot High-Confidence Trading Opportunities in a "Pinch"!
Why this single moving average chart pattern belongs in your technical toolbox today

By Elliott Wave International

When it comes to the world of technical market analysis, the biggest obstacle isn't a lack of quality, but rather, an abundance of choice. There are literally hundreds of technical tools out there, with digital libraries and chat boards devoted to the many variations of individual components.

If you used them all, your technical pages would look like the motherboard of the Starship Enterprise. And you'd need Spock himself to interpret the massive influx of data.

So, where on planet Earth do you start? How do you curate the right technical tools to support your trading style and maximize your ability to spot high-confidence setups in real-world markets?

Well, that's where our Trader's Classroom editor Jeffrey Kennedy comes in. In his August 9 video lesson titled "Pinch Me! How to Build Your Ideal, Custom Technical Indicator Page," Jeffrey shares one of his top three favorite technical chart patterns: the moving average "pinch.”

Right away, Jeffrey stresses the two main functions of any technical indicator page:

1. Identify the trend
2. Identify areas of oversold and overbought conditions

The moving average (MA) "pinch" accomplishes both, and here's how: First, the pinch occurs when all three MA lines -- green, red and grey -- come together and appear to form one single line. Then ... well, you'll just have to watch this free video to find out.

Jeffrey shows you several real-world examples of MA pinches, including this one in late 2018 price action of Big Board listee Chipotle Mexican Grill (ticker symbol CMG).

In the free video, Jeffrey highlights the area of compression where the pinch occurred and describes it as a "beautiful little bullish set-up," confirmed by the powerful advance that followed.

In fact, during the time of the pinch's formation in Chipotle, Jeffrey featured the market in his January 10, 2019 Trader's Classroom. There, Jeffrey homed in on the narrow and choppy price action in CMG, a six-month long sideways move that barely retraced 50% of the preceding rally, magnified here:

The same period of compression identified as a MA "pinch" was confirmed by all the characteristics of counter-trend price action -- the latter of which led Jeffrey to include Chipotle in his "I Like It!" market list for a strong move higher.

The next chart captures the volatile upside explosion that has seen a doubling in value of CMG prices to new record highs:

The first step to identifying a moving average "pinch" is to understand the mechanisms of the moving average indicator. In his August 9 Trader's Classroom video "Pinch Me!" Jeffrey lays the groundwork with a user-friendly lesson covering all the need-to-know basics.

Jeffrey also shows you how an MA pinch preceded three major buying opportunities in 2013, 2016 and 2019 in the tech-giant Apple.

Plus, you'll see how an MA pinch underway right now in the Healthcare Select Sector SPDR fund (XLV) suggests an "exciting" period of volatility may be ahead.

Free, watch Jeffrey Kennedy's Trader's Classroom “Pinch me!” video lesson now -- and see why the MA pinch is the first step to building a custom technical indicator page.

No, this isn't a dream; the power of the pinch is very real!

Using Moving Averages with Elliott Wave Analysis

Moving Averages and the Wave Principle
Improve your Elliott wave pattern identification skills with this lesson from Jeffrey Kennedy 

By Elliott Wave International

Moving averages are one of the most widely-used methods of technical analysis because they are simple to use, and they work. Among Elliott wave traders, you will likely find an especially high percentage of investors and traders who incorporate moving averages into their Wave analysis.

Here's why: you can use moving averages to identify Elliott waves.

Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy knows how to take complex trading methods and teach them in a way you can immediately understand and apply -- his step-by-step tutorials are beneficial to traders at any level of experience. Jeffrey is also well-known for combining ancillary technical tools to strengthen his Elliott wave analysis.

The following lesson provides a powerful example of how moving averages can strengthen your ability to identify Elliott Patterns. It is excerpted from Jeffrey's free 10-page eBook, How You Can Find High-Probability Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages. (Click here to get your copy of this free eBook now.)

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If you're new to the Wave Principle, I recommend using a moving average to get you started, and the reason why is that a moving average overlaid on a price chart will help train your eye to see developing Elliott wave patterns.
For an example of a schematic Elliott wave, look at the figure below:

If you've read The Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost, you know that wave patterns are illustrated as line diagrams.
When you look at a real price chart rather than a schematic, the basic chart is typically an open-high-low-close price chart. Each price bar represents a single period and is illustrated by a vertical line with a small mark to the left and a small mark to the right as seen in the next figure:

The little lower line on the left-hand side of the vertical bar is the open; the little upper line on the right-hand side of the vertical line is the close; the top of the line is the day's high or that trading period's extreme; and the bottom of the line is that trading period's low.
Here's the thing: Whenever you're making the transition from looking at a textbook diagram to actually counting Elliott waves on a real price chart, it can be confusing to the eye. If you use a moving average, it will help you to see the wave pattern more easily.
Let me prove my case more thoroughly with this chart of Corn:

The blue line is an 8-period simple moving average of the close, which clearly shows that a five-wave decline has unfolded from the upper left-hand side of this price chart. With the aid of a moving average, the subdivisions within this selloff are more easily discernible than with the untrained naked eye.
Also, notice that the slope of the move up in wave 4 is shallow. This detail is important because one of the key characteristics of countertrend price action is that it moves slowly, thus its slope will be inherently more shallow than what one can expect to encounter when a motive wave is in force.

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Learn How to Trade the Highest Probability Opportunities: Moving Averages No matter what your level of experience in the markets, you'll be amazed at how quickly you can benefit when you include moving averages in your Elliott wave analysis. Now you can learn how to apply them to your trading and investing in this free 10-page eBook. Learn step-by-step how moving averages can help you find high-probability trading opportunities. Begin to improve your trading and investing with Moving Averages today! Download Your Free eBook Now >>

Stock Trading is Hit or Miss

Some Traders Hit. Some Traders Miss. Here's How to be Part of the 1st Group
Also, watch Jeffrey Kennedy identify two high-confidence trade set-ups in Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)

By Elliott Wave International

'It's the most wonderful time of the year,' goes the famous holiday song. Except on Black Friday morning, that is, when a deadly stampede of shoppers at the big-name box store runs Granny down in the dry goods aisle.
But, if you think about it, a Black Friday stampede is not that different from a trading 'stampede' when thousands of trades all rush into the same hot stock.
When the trading "doors" open and a throng of people are all angling for the same opportunity as you, the clock is ticking. Under pressure, many traders race headlong into that market, palms sweating, heart racing, with no secure trading plan in place.
Have you ever been part of that crowd? That's OK. All traders have.
Our very own master analyst Jeffrey Kennedy describes this tendency in his newest educational resource '12 Real Life Techniques That Will Make You a Better Trader Now.' It's a collection of 5 video tutorials, and in the third one Jeffrey nails the 'stampede' impulse on the head:

"The reason is because people are running on a 'lack' mentality. Everybody's knocking each other down, fighting to get to the front of the pack because again, they're thinking there's a limited supply of whatever items, say flat-screen TV's.
Well, ever since they made flat-screen TV's, I don't think there has ever, in reality, been a single day that I couldn't go out and buy whatever flat-screen TV I've wanted. I could buy five a week if I wanted to because the supply is out there.
Likewise, there's plenty of opportunity in the markets. Literally, there is more opportunity than you actually have money in your trading account. By understanding that, you begin to discard the 'lack' mentality, and embrace an abundant one."

That's 1 lesson of 12: "Wait for the market to commit to you before you commit to the market" because no matter what, there is always another opportunity waiting just around the corner.
It helps, of course, to know exactly what you're waiting for. In the second video of this five-video series, Jeffrey catalogs the "four critical elements of a high-confidence trade set-up," using the price chart of Johnson & Johnson stock (NYSE: JNJ)
JNJ Opportunity #1: December 29, 2016 Trader's Classroom lesson. There, Jeffrey identified recent selling as a corrective fourth wave and called for the resumption of the larger uptrend in a fifth wave rally "above $124.38."
JNJ Opportunity #2: May 2, 2017 Trader's Classroom video lesson, where Jeffrey showed subscribers how, if they missed the big JNJ rally from December, there was another "opportunity to the buy side" -- one that would take prices to $132, or even $137.
The chart below shows how Jeffrey's objective criteria kept his subscribers one step ahead of two major opportunities in this popular stock:

Want to watch Jeffrey's actual video forecast where he analyses JNJ in real-time?
Press play and enjoy!

Some traders hit. Others, miss. Learn to be part of the first group today with Jeffrey's five-video educational resource, "12 Real Life Techniques That Will Make You a Better Trader Now."
Let our own Master Instructor Jeffrey Kennedy share with you 5 videos with 12 battle-tested trading tips. These free lessons will make you understand the steps you should always take to capitalize on new market opportunities.

Get Access Now!

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Some Traders Hit. Some Traders Miss. Here's How to be Part of the 1st Group. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Silver Trading Indicator

This Indicator Stayed AHEAD of Silver for 18+ Months: See What It Says NOW

By Elliott Wave International

Should investors rely on traditional ways of evaluating the stock market's "proper value"? You might be surprised at what these four charts show.

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See. Join this free event hosted by Elliott Wave International and you'll get a clear picture of what's next in a variety of U.S. markets. After seeing these videos and charts you will be ready to jump on opportunities and sidestep risks in some major markets. This free report (a $29 value) will present a unique outlook and give you a new perspective on the markets you won't get anywhere else. Get your FREE report now – for a limited time >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline This Indicator Stayed AHEAD of Silver for 18+ Months: See What It Says NOW. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

the BIG DROP Scenario for US Markets

The Drop Like a Rock Scenario for U.S. Markets

Third waves are "wonders to behold" 
July 27, 2012

Financial markets always have and always will pose two basic questions that investors seek to answer:

1. What's the direction of the main trend?
2. How far will it go?

Systematic approaches to these questions commonly belong to either fundamental or technical analysis. Let's consider each one briefly.

Fundamental analysis studies how a market behaves in response to external influences such as earnings, sales, competitive outlook, economic outlook and the like.

Technical analysis studies a market's internal behavior -- mainly price, but also internal measures like volume.

Elliott wave analysis is a branch of technical analysis, specifically pattern recognition.

In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns...Elliott isolated five such patterns, or "waves," that recur in market price data.

Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior (p. 19)

In a five-wave progression, the third wave is the most powerful.

Third waves unfold in bull and bear markets alike. Elliott Wave Principle (p. 80) describes a third wave in a bull market:

Third waves are wonders to behold. They are strong and broad, and the trend at this point is unmistakable...Third waves usually generate the greatest volume and price movement and are most often the extended wave in a series. It follows, of course, that the third wave of a third wave, and so on, will be the most volatile point of strength in any wave sequence.

Third waves can be more powerful during market declines because fear is a stronger emotion than greed.

Look at the third wave on this S&P 500 chart which published in the January 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Notice that prices dropped like a rock, plunging well over 600 points in less than a year. (The third wave starts where the chart shows (2) and ends at (3)):

You can see on the chart that the S&P 500 had rebounded after the third wave had bottomed. Even so, the chart's title states that there was "Room for a New Low." Indeed, after the rebound which was wave (4), wave (5) took prices to a March 6, 2009 intraday low of 666.79.

How about now?

That depends on who you ask.

On July 10, CNBC reported on the sentiment of a chief market strategist of a capital management firm:

Ever the optimist, he is holding to his market call this year for the S&P 500 to hit 1,500.

A principal of a financial advisory firm and guest columnist for Marketwatch wrote a July 10 article titled "Stock charts don't lie: the trend is up." The article says:

Shares continue their winning ways, technically. The averages show a stair-step series of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend.

By contrast, the latest Financial Forecast flat out says:

The stock market is nowhere near a lasting low.

Why does the Financial Forecast differ from the two opinions above?

Because Elliott analysts know that during a market downtrend, second waves can convince investors that the rally is a new bull market.

That can be a financially dangerous mind-set.

Optimism precedes third waves lower. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, a third wave can commence with unrelenting violence and speed.

In the chart above, you saw the optimism-driven rebound just before prices plunged.

Do not expect the financial media to provide you with advance warning of a third wave. The crowd is almost always on the wrong side of the market. Third waves arriveunannounced.

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Learn How to Spot Third Waves and More - FREE! The Elliott Wave Crash Course is a series of three FREE videos that demolishes the widely held notion that news drives the markets. Each video will provide a basis for using Elliott wave analysis in your own trading and investing decisions. You'll get the Why, What, and How of Elliott Wave Analysis: Video 1: Why Use the Wave Principle -- a comprehensive look at what the financial media say drives the markets and why their "fundamentals" are usually wrong. Video 2: What is the Wave Principle -- explains in vivid detail the recurring "motive" and "corrective" patterns R. N. Elliott discovered in the DJIA in 1938. Video 3: How to Trade the Wave Principle -- real charts and strategies for position management, such as entry, stop, target and risk/reward assessment. Access the Elliott Wave Crash Course Now >>

Get Ready for the Rest of the Crash

Position Yourself for the Rest of "Conquer the Crash"
The earlier you prepare, the better
May 23, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

To this day, I wonder why Robert Prechter's book Conquer the Crash has not been more widely recognized. It described in advance much of what happened in the 2008 financial crisis.
Published in 2002, the book provided detailed descriptions of then-future economic scenarios. They were detailed vs. general. Prechter was specific in a way that would prove right or wrong; there was no gray.
This is from the book:

There are five major conditions in place at many banks that pose a danger: (1) low liquidity levels, (2) dangerous exposure to leveraged derivatives, (3) the optimistic safety ratings of banks' debt investments, (4) the inflated values of the property that borrowers have put up as collateral on loans and (5) the substantial size of the mortgages that their clients hold compared both to those property values and to the clients' potential inability to pay under adverse circumstances. All of these conditions compound the risk to the banking system of deflation and depression.

Conquer the Crash, second edition, (p. 179)

That's just one excerpt about one topic in a 456-page text. Perhaps you see why I believe the book deserves more credit. Yet even that one paragraph from the book turned out to be a virtual mirror of what came to pass. And much of what he predicted is unfolding today: the JPMorgan trading fiasco, massive withdrawals at Greek banks, downgrades of Italian and Spanish banks and much more. Those are just a few headlines.
The broader point is that Conquer the Crash prepared its readers. Around the time the book's second edition published in 2009, the Chicago Sun-Times remarked
And the credit implosion is still not over. Please take a look at the chart:

In the Conquer the Crash quote in the first part of this article, you'll notice the last three words are "deflation and depression."
The world has yet to completely pass through these economic valleys.

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It's not too late to prepare yourself for what's ahead Elliott Wave International is offering a special free report with 8 lessons from Conquer the Crash to help you prepare for your financial future. In this 42-page report, you'll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt, a list of imperative do's and don'ts, plus much more. Get Your FREE 8-Lesson Conquer the Crash Report Now >>

What to Make of the Stock Market

The Manic-Depressive Stock Market: What to Make of It
The psychology of the market may be teetering on the edge
May 2, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

The stock market: one week it acts like Dr. Jekyll, the next week it's Mr. Hyde.
That shift can even occur in the course of a single session.
These dramatic fluctuations appear to be impulsive; and we know that impulse does not flow from cold reason. Even so, the Efficient Market Hypothesis would have us believe that investors are constantly applying reason and logic to reach some objective market pricing, via the latest news or measure of stock market valuation.
The February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist provides insight:

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and its variants in academic financial modeling...rely at least implicitly but usually quite explicitly upon the bedrock ideas of exogenous cause and rational reaction. Stunningly, as far as I can determine, no evidence supports these premises...
EMH argues that as new information enters the marketplace, investors revalue stocks accordingly. If this were true, then the stock market averages would look something like the illustration shown [below].

We know that the market does not unfold in the way illustrated above. But we do know that the market has unfolded like this:

So in 2000, did a sudden burst of logic lead investors to realize that the NASDAQ was over-valued?
No. Technology stocks had absurd price/earnings ratios long before the NASDAQ top.
The NASDAQ's abrupt switch from Hyde to Jekyll stemmed from investors' collective unconscious. Consider the gazelle that runs in panic because others are: it does not pause to rationally survey the landscape. It explodes in a burst of speed that reaches 90 km/hr within seconds.
Decades ago, multimillionaire stock market operator Bernard Baruch said

...the stock market is people. It is people trying to read the future. And it is this intensely human quality that makes the stock market so dramatic an arena, in which men and women pit their conflicting judgments, their hopes and fears, strengths and weaknesses, greeds and ideals.

This psychology of the marketplace unfolds in waves. That is what we study.

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Free to Learn Elliott Wave Analysis

Learn Elliott Wave Analysis -- Free
Often, basics is all you need to know.
March 5, 2010

By Editorial Staff

Understand the basics of the subject matter, break it down to its smallest parts -- and you've laid a good foundation for proper application of... well, anything, really. That's what we had in mind when we put together our free 10-lesson online Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial, based largely on Robert Prechter's classic "Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior." Here's an excerpt:

Successful market timing depends upon learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, you can avoid becoming a part of it. ...the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure.
The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral part of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure.
These properties not only forewarn the analyst about what to expect in the next sequence but at times can help determine one's present location in the progression of waves, when for other reasons the count is unclear or open to differing interpretations.
As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable. If the analyst recognizes the character of a single wave, he can often correctly interpret the complexities of the larger pattern.
The following discussions relate to an underlying bull market... These observations apply in reverse when the actionary waves are downward and the reactionary waves are upward.

1) First waves -- ...about half of first waves are part of the "basing" process and thus tend to be heavily corrected by wave two. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in volume and breadth. Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is down. Investors have finally gotten "one more rally to sell on," and they take advantage of it. The other half of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the previous correction, as in 1949, from downside failures, as in 1962, or from extreme compression, as in both 1962 and 1974. From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only moderately retraced. ...

Read the rest of this 10-lesson Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial online now, free! Here's what you'll learn:

• What the basic Elliott wave progression looks like
• Difference between impulsive and corrective waves
• How to estimate the length of waves
• How Fibonacci numbers fit into wave analysis
• Practical application tips for the method
• More

Keep reading this free tutorial today.

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Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. EWI’s 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI’s educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet’s richest free content programs, Club EWI.