Discover 5 Reliable Setups in Just 26 Minutes (Free Video)

Did you know 60-80% of price action unfolds in just 5 core Elliott wave patterns? It's true.

If you can get familiar with just those five, you'll be able to quickly scour you price charts. When one of those patterns shows up, you will have identified a potential high-confidence set-up.

So says Elliott Wave International's senior instructor and Trader's Classroom editor Jeffrey Kennedy. Jeffrey's FREE video lesson "Discover 5 Reliable Setups in Just 26 Minutes" is designed to reveal those five patterns to you.

In his free 26-minute video, Jeffrey uses five well-known stocks to show you the core patterns. And he shows you what those set-ups mean for the immediate future.

This is one of Elliottwave.com's most popular videos on its website. Now, we're making it available to you. Don't miss it.

Watch it now -- free.

. . . .

Opportunity in Silver

The 'Silver Lines' of Opportunity
How to turn a simple chart into a near-term road map

By Elliott Wave International

On February 20, Variety Magazine's "Film News Roundup" announced a new thriller coming to theaters near you: "The Silver Bear."

Funny enough, that same day, another kind of thriller was playing out in the theater of finance; its name, the Silver Bull!

The chart below captures the action: Since the start of 2019, silver prices had been on a tear, soaring to $14, $14.50, $15, $15.50 and then $16 per ounce in late February in a white-hot winning streak that has outperformed even gold.

Thanks to a wide array of supportive fundamentals including a softening U.S. dollar, a dovish Federal Reserve, increased economic uncertainty and a subsequent rise in demand for traditional "safe havens" such as gold and silver -- mainstream news outlets captured the Silver Bull sentiment on high:

"Is Silver About to Explode?" (Feb. 21 Seeking Alpha)
"Silver Market Steadily Building Up Momentum" (Feb. 19 Commodity Trade Mantra)
"Silver Experiences A Bullish Development that Points to Higher Prices" (Feb. 20 ETF Daily News)

Yet, off the mainstream screen, we had a very different take on silver's rally. On February 21, our Metals Pro Service identified a classic Elliot wave "impulse" underway from the November 2018 low to the February 20 high above $16 per ounce. And, it was close to being finished.

For newbies, here is an idealized diagram of an impulse wave, defined as a five-wave move labeled 1 through 5 that adheres to three cardinal rules:

• Wave 2 can never retrace more than 100% of wave 1.
• Wave 3 is never the shortest among waves 1, 3 and 5.
• And wave 4 can't end in the price territory of wave 1.

The February 21 Metals Pro Service labeled the impulsive rise on silver's price chart and warned of a pending reversal:

"Silver may have topped...at 16.19 and be correcting the entire rise from 13.98 now."

So, what should you expect after a five-wave impulse is complete?

By their very nature, an impulse move is followed by a correction, often unfolding in three waves (A-B-C) and pushing back into the span of travel of the prior fourth wave. See diagram below:

Wrote our Metals Pro Service on February 21:

"The move should develop in three waves and reach the 15.35 area over the coming days."

The white metal followed in-step, embarking on a powerful, two-week long selloff to below $15 per ounce.

Then, on March 7, our Metals Pro Service turned near-term bullish. Why?

Because now the three-wave, A-B-C correction was complete, too. On March 7, Metals Pro Service silver outlook set the stage for gains:

"On the upside, an impulsive rally above 15.17 will hint that a bottom is in place and that the larger-degree uptrend has re-ignited."

From there, silver regained its shine right into our cited upside target area on March 21 -- before turning back down.

So, where are silver prices likely headed from here?

Our Metals Pro Service analysis reveals that right now. Watch our Metals expert, Tom Denham, discuss his exciting analysis and exactly what he sees next for this precious metal in his March 28 Metals Pro Service subscriber update. Sign up now for instant access.

Pot Stocks to Invest In

Cannabis Stocks: Don't Let Your Opportunity Go Up in Smoke
Here's when society expresses greater acceptance toward marijuana

By Elliott Wave International

In the 1973 song "The Joker," the Steve Miller Band sang:

"I'm a joker. I'm a smoker. I'm a midnight toker."

Of course, "midnight toker" referred to pot smoking. Back then, there were plenty of midnight tokers, but most of them feared getting "busted."

Thirty years later, in 2003, the Elliott Wave Theorist predicted:

"Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs will be decriminalized."

Then, in July 2009, The Socionomist (the monthly publication of the Socionomics Institute, a sister organization of Elliott Wave International) published a study titled "The Coming Collapse of Modern Prohibition," which reviewed the repeal of Prohibition during the bear market psychology of the early 1930s.

This study also shed insight as to why the Socionomics Institute's analysts were predicting greater acceptance toward marijuana use. Here's an excerpt:

"Social mood influences people's actions and their social judgments. In times of positive mood, people have the resources to enforce their social desires. They can afford to express the black and white moral issues preferred during bull markets, and drug abuse is a favorite target.

During times of negative mood, on the other hand, society's priorities change. People have other, bigger worries and begin to view recreational drugs as less dangerous, if not innocuous in offering stress relief, pain reduction and the ability to cope with the pressures of negative social mood.

Over the past 100 years, governmental activities have manifested these changing attitudes. During periods of rising mood, policymakers stepped up regulation of cannabis. During periods of falling mood, they eased those same stances.

Keep in mind that when the July 2009 Socionomist published, society had just experienced its worst "falling mood" period since the '30s.

So, analysts at the Socionomics Institute were not at all surprised by what happened in 2012. That was the year that Colorado and Washington became the first states where citizens voted to legalize marijuana for recreational use. Even though pot remains illegal at the federal level, since 2012, other states have also legalized pot for recreational or medical use.

In 2019, the investing public can choose from a number of cannabis stocks.

There are no shortage of stories like this one from U.S. News & World Report (March 1, 2019):

6 Best Cannabis Stocks to Buy on U.S. Exchanges

On the other hand, a March 20 Forbes headline reads:

Cannabis Stocks Are Full Of Hot Air

So, are cannabis stocks a good investment idea or not?

Well, from the Socionomics Institute's perspective, there's not an across the board "yes," or "no" answer. However, according to our analysis, there is opportunity.

Indeed, EWI has just published a special report titled "The Golden Age of Cannabis," which consists of 7 pages and 21 charts.

You will find analysis of the largest marijuana stocks by market capitalization in the United States, Australia, Canada and the UK.

Sign up today and get instant access to an excerpt from this "must read" special report -- 100% FREE.

Falling Trade Deficit and the Stock Market

Falling Trade Deficit is Good for Stocks: True or False?

By Elliott Wave International

A common claim from economic and stock market observers is that a rising trade deficit is injurious to the economy -- hence, bearish for stocks. On the other hand, a falling trade deficit is commonly believed to be bullish for stocks.

Sounds like common sense, but the price action of the main stock indexes often defy reason.

For example, on March 27, CNBC reported, "The U.S. trade deficit fell much more than expected in January to $51.15 billion, from a forecast $57 billion. The decline of 14.6 percent represented the sharpest drop since March 2018... ." Yet on the day the news was released, the main U.S. stock indexes closed lower.

Over the years, countless economists and investors have been baffled when the stock market has risen on bad news and fallen when the news was good. This has happened time and time again with news regarding the expansion or contraction of the trade deficit.

Consider the following news items from the past four decades and contextual comments in brackets (courtesy of Robert Prechter's 2017 book The Socionomic Theory of Finance):

March 28, 1981

The Commerce Department... reported the nation's balance of trade deficit had improved in February. [The second of back-to-back recessions began just five months later.]

March 1, 1984

"... the trade deficit is an economic disaster," said [a] chief economist. [An eight-year boom was just getting going.]

April 12, 1985

The secretary of state said, "We can break the back of the trade deficit only through...a stronger worldwide recovery...." [Precisely the opposite was true; the trade deficit rose during the strong worldwide recovery.]

May 26, 1990

The better-than-expected trade performance sent many economists scurrying to revise their trade forecasts. [A recession started a month later.]

February 22, 2002

The nation's trade deficit narrowed by 11.4 percent in December. [The stock market was peaking and collapsed to new lows in October.]

February 15, 2008

[A chief economist] said that the smaller December trade deficit will help to boost overall economic growth. [The second-worst financial crash and economic contraction in a hundred years were already underway.]

And, on July 14, 2010, USA Today said:

Rising trade deficit could drag down U.S. recovery.

But, as we know, the economic recovery continued.

The below chart and commentary provide even more evidence.

As published in The Socionomic Theory of Finance

The chart reveals that had economists reversed their statements and expressed relief whenever the trade deficit began to expand and concern whenever it began to shrink, they would have quite accurately negotiated the ups and downs of the stock market and the economy over the past 40 years. The relationship, if there is one, is precisely the opposite of the one they believe is there. Over the span of these data, there has been a consistently positive--not negative--correlation among the stock market, the economy and the trade deficit.

The trade deficit’s widely presumed effect is 100% myth.

This is just one misconception in a long list of market myths… Do earnings really drive stock prices? Can the FDIC actually protect you? Is portfolio diversification a smart move? Read our free report "Market Myths Exposed" now and find out whether your portfolio is built on flawed foundations.

the Stock Market and the Fed

Elliott Wave: Fed Follows Market Yet Again

By Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall

Back in December, we wrote an article titled "Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market."
In the piece, we noted that while most experts believe that central banks set interest rates, it's actually the other way around—the market leads, and the Fed follows.
We pointed out that the December rate hike followed increases in the six-month and three-month U.S. Treasury bill yields set by the market.
What happened with this week's Fed announcement? Well, you guessed it—the Fed simply followed the market yet again.

The chart above is an updated version of the one we showed in our last article. The red line is the U.S. Federal Funds rate, the yellow line is the rate on the 3-month U.S. T-bill and the green line is the rate on the 6-month U.S. T-bill. The latter two rates are freely-traded in the auction arena, while the former rate is set by the Fed.
Now observe the grey ellipses. Throughout 2017-2018, the rates on 3-and-6-month U.S. T-bills were rising steadily, pushing above the Fed Fund's rate. During the period shown on the graph, the Fed raised its interest rate six times, each time to keep up with the rising T-bill rates. The interest-rate market is the dog wagging the central-bank tail.
Now note what T-bill rates have been doing since November of last year; they've stopped rising. Rates have moved net-sideways, which was the market's way of signaling that the Fed would not raise the Fed Funds rate this week.
Too many investors and pundits obsess over whether the Fed will raise or lower the Fed Funds rate and what it all supposedly means. First, if you want to know what the Fed will or will not do, simply look at T-bills, as shown on the chart. Second, whatever their action, it doesn't matter because the Fed's interest-rate policy cannot force people to borrow.
See Chapter 3 of The Socionomic Theory of Finance for more evidence.

Trump Impeachment Stock Market

Will Negative Social Mood Oust Trump? Watch the Stock Market

By Elliott Wave International

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Special Q&A With Alan Hall on Elections and Impeachment
At the end of this article you'll have the opportunity to hear Alan discuss his impeachment research with ETV Correspondent Dana Weeks.
You cannot afford to miss Alan's insightful political analysis. Please login to view the interview after reading the article.

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Those who want President Trump to stay in office should hope the stock market rises, and those who want him ousted should hope it crashes.
Why? History shows that the stock market is a useful indicator of people's attitudes toward the president. Socionomic theory proposes that society's overall mood regulates both stock prices and the public's perceptions of its leaders. Positive social mood makes society feel optimistic, bid up stock prices and credit leaders for their good feelings. Negative social mood makes society feel pessimistic, sell stocks and blame leaders for their bad feelings.
These tendencies are evident in presidential re-election outcomes. Presidents Hoover and Carter, for example, lost bids for re-election during trends toward negative social mood as reflected by declining stock prices. In fact, the stock market is a better re-election indicator than inflation, unemployment and GDP growth combined, as my colleagues at the Socionomics Institute demonstrated in a 2012 paper.
Social mood's influence is also evident in the results of U.S. presidential impeachments and near-impeachments. Twice in history the U.S. House of Representatives has voted to impeach a president. In both cases social mood was trending positively, as reflected by rising stock prices, and in both cases the Senate voted for acquittal.

Figure 1

Figure 1 illustrates the timing of the first presidential impeachment. On March 2, 1868, the House of Representatives formally agreed to eleven articles of impeachment against President Andrew Johnson. The Senate took three separate votes, and each fell one vote short of the two-thirds majority necessary to remove Johnson from office. The Senate acquitted Johnson on May 26, 1868, during a stock rally that added to the 250% increase since October 1857.

Figure 2

Figure 2 shows that a substantial trend toward positive social mood preceded President Bill Clinton's impeachment in the House and subsequent acquittal in the Senate. Note that some of the most serious events in the Monica Lewinsky scandal coincided with the largest downturn in the Dow during Clinton's presidency. Yet, as the Dow recovered, so did Clinton's approval ratings. And despite a $70-million prosecution of Clinton's related perjury and obstruction of justice charges, the Senate acquitted the president as positive social mood lifted the Dow, Dow/gold and Dow/PPI to important peaks.

Figure 3

President Richard Nixon's near-impeachment and resignation from office serves as a textbook case of how social mood influences the fortunes of public figures. Figure 3 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average surrounding his time in office. The soon-to-be infamous Watergate break-in occurred toward the end of a strong 67% rally in the Dow from May 1970-January 1973. That trend toward positive mood helped Nixon win re-election in a landslide. But as mood trended toward the negative, the public's view of its leader darkened, its appetite for scandal increased, the investigation accelerated, and Nixon's fortunes changed. With almost certain impeachment looming, Nixon became the first president to resign from office on August 9, 1974.

Figure 4

What does this history tell us about the probability that President Trump will serve a full term in office? We considered this question in the June 2017 issue of The Socionomist. Figure 4 is a chart from that issue, updated to the present. It depicts the trend of social mood as reflected by the Dow. We left the gray arrows showing our 2017 analysis in place, and we added red arrows to indicate the possibilities going forward. In July 2017, Congressman Brad Sherman formally introduced an article of impeachment against the president in the House of Representatives. Yet as the market rose during 2017, President Trump--despite low approval ratings, tremendous staff turnover, unrelenting criticism from the political left and numerous indictments and charges of Trump associates in the ongoing Mueller investigation--did not face an impeachment vote. After the stock market peaked on January 26, 2018, however, the tone changed, and even some on the political right became more critical of the president.
Since the October 3 stock market peak, disapproval of the president has grown steadily louder and more strident. At the same time, the Mueller investigation has implicated more and more of the president's inner circle in illegal activities. The Democrats won control of the House in the 2018 midterms. A November 26 Gallup poll revealed Trump's disapproval rating had hit an all-time high. On December 10, Fox News's senior judicial analyst Andrew Napolitano said Trump could be charged with "three separate crimes and could be indicted while serving as president." By December 17, the Mueller investigation had issued more than 100 criminal counts and charged 34 people, 10 of whom have been found guilty. That same day, Wired published its list of "All 17 (Known) Trump and Russia Investigations" and said, "it's increasingly clear that, as 2018 winds down, Donald Trump faces a legal assault unlike anything previously seen by any president."
In the weeks since, the Trump Foundation agreed to dissolve, and Secretary of Defense James Mattis and diplomat Brett McGurk have resigned. On December 24, Time reported, "National Christmas Tree to Stay Dark During Holiday Due to Government Shutdown," and several news organizations ran stories with versions of The Atlantic's headline, "President Trump's Nightmare Before Christmas," as the stock market plunged. Of course, stalwart supporters of the president remain. Yet the number of oppositional voices is rising. A December 19 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that 41% of Americans favor impeachment hearings.
We don't know what the Mueller investigation will ultimately reveal, but for Trump, the facts may not matter as much as the social mood. Fasten your seatbelt and keep your eyes on stock market indexes, our best reflection of the trend of social mood.
Q & A With Alan Hall on Elections and Impeachment
You've read his essay, now hear from Alan Hall himself -- including how he connects the dots from election research to impeachment, plus how he hopes to "get thru" to people whose minds are already made up.
Don't have an EWI Login? No worries! Join Club EWI, our free Elliott wave educational community, and gain free access to this resource plus a full catalog of other valuable lessons. Plus, we'll keep you updated with new resources, exclusive invitations, and deals.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Will Negative Social Mood Oust Trump? Watch the Stock Market. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Stock Trading is Hit or Miss

Some Traders Hit. Some Traders Miss. Here's How to be Part of the 1st Group
Also, watch Jeffrey Kennedy identify two high-confidence trade set-ups in Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)

By Elliott Wave International

'It's the most wonderful time of the year,' goes the famous holiday song. Except on Black Friday morning, that is, when a deadly stampede of shoppers at the big-name box store runs Granny down in the dry goods aisle.
But, if you think about it, a Black Friday stampede is not that different from a trading 'stampede' when thousands of trades all rush into the same hot stock.
When the trading "doors" open and a throng of people are all angling for the same opportunity as you, the clock is ticking. Under pressure, many traders race headlong into that market, palms sweating, heart racing, with no secure trading plan in place.
Have you ever been part of that crowd? That's OK. All traders have.
Our very own master analyst Jeffrey Kennedy describes this tendency in his newest educational resource '12 Real Life Techniques That Will Make You a Better Trader Now.' It's a collection of 5 video tutorials, and in the third one Jeffrey nails the 'stampede' impulse on the head:

"The reason is because people are running on a 'lack' mentality. Everybody's knocking each other down, fighting to get to the front of the pack because again, they're thinking there's a limited supply of whatever items, say flat-screen TV's.
Well, ever since they made flat-screen TV's, I don't think there has ever, in reality, been a single day that I couldn't go out and buy whatever flat-screen TV I've wanted. I could buy five a week if I wanted to because the supply is out there.
Likewise, there's plenty of opportunity in the markets. Literally, there is more opportunity than you actually have money in your trading account. By understanding that, you begin to discard the 'lack' mentality, and embrace an abundant one."

That's 1 lesson of 12: "Wait for the market to commit to you before you commit to the market" because no matter what, there is always another opportunity waiting just around the corner.
It helps, of course, to know exactly what you're waiting for. In the second video of this five-video series, Jeffrey catalogs the "four critical elements of a high-confidence trade set-up," using the price chart of Johnson & Johnson stock (NYSE: JNJ)
JNJ Opportunity #1: December 29, 2016 Trader's Classroom lesson. There, Jeffrey identified recent selling as a corrective fourth wave and called for the resumption of the larger uptrend in a fifth wave rally "above $124.38."
JNJ Opportunity #2: May 2, 2017 Trader's Classroom video lesson, where Jeffrey showed subscribers how, if they missed the big JNJ rally from December, there was another "opportunity to the buy side" -- one that would take prices to $132, or even $137.
The chart below shows how Jeffrey's objective criteria kept his subscribers one step ahead of two major opportunities in this popular stock:

Want to watch Jeffrey's actual video forecast where he analyses JNJ in real-time?
Press play and enjoy!

Some traders hit. Others, miss. Learn to be part of the first group today with Jeffrey's five-video educational resource, "12 Real Life Techniques That Will Make You a Better Trader Now."
Let our own Master Instructor Jeffrey Kennedy share with you 5 videos with 12 battle-tested trading tips. These free lessons will make you understand the steps you should always take to capitalize on new market opportunities.

Get Access Now!

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Some Traders Hit. Some Traders Miss. Here's How to be Part of the 1st Group. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

U.S. Stock Market Top

How to Tell the "Size of the Forming Top" in U.S. Stocks
Why these "trivial" indicators are actually historic red flags

By Elliott Wave International

Many investors see almost no risk in the stock market. Indeed, they are betting to a record degree that the stock market will continue to rise. In EWI's view, here's what this extreme financial optimism strongly suggests.

Learn to Use Sentiment to Time Your Investments Better In this 14-minute video, you'll learn how to combine Elliott wave analysis with extremes in market sentiment to reliably anticipate turning points in the markets. EWI Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg explains using an example in gold. Get instant access

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How to Tell the "Size of the Forming Top" in U.S. Stocks. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Gold Commitment of Traders Trading

Gold: Often, Simple Forecasting Tools Are All You Need

By Elliott Wave International

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See. Join this free event hosted by Elliott Wave International and you'll get a clear picture of what's next in a variety of U.S. markets. After seeing these videos and charts you will be ready to jump on opportunities and sidestep risks in some major markets. This free report (a $29 value) will present a unique outlook and give you a new perspective on the markets you won't get anywhere else. Get your FREE report now – for a limited time >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Gold: Often, Simple Forecasting Tools Are All You Need. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Silver Trading Indicator

This Indicator Stayed AHEAD of Silver for 18+ Months: See What It Says NOW

By Elliott Wave International

Should investors rely on traditional ways of evaluating the stock market's "proper value"? You might be surprised at what these four charts show.

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See. Join this free event hosted by Elliott Wave International and you'll get a clear picture of what's next in a variety of U.S. markets. After seeing these videos and charts you will be ready to jump on opportunities and sidestep risks in some major markets. This free report (a $29 value) will present a unique outlook and give you a new perspective on the markets you won't get anywhere else. Get your FREE report now – for a limited time >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline This Indicator Stayed AHEAD of Silver for 18+ Months: See What It Says NOW. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Brexit: "The Vote Heard Around the World"
Our new free report gives you our well-researched opinion on Brexit -- and the markets

By Elliott Wave International

The campaign for the June 23 referendum on whether or not Britain should remain a member of the European Union has just hit a horrific milestone. CNBC reports that,

"A British lawmaker was shot to death while meeting with constituents Thursday in an attack that halted campaigning over whether the U.K. should leave the European Union.
"Cox, a 41-year-old member of the opposition Labour Party, had been campaigning to keep the U.K. in the European Union."

While the police are still investigating the motive, it wouldn't be a stretch to imagine that it had to do with the lawmaker's position on Brexit. After all, this event would have a huge impact on the future of the EU, and passions are running high.
The financial markets are seen to be particularly at risk if Britain votes to leave. As our May 2016 European Financial Forecast put it,

"... the market's Brexit reaction was deemed to be so critical that Bloomberg conducted a special 30-minute webinar on the subject. Entitled 'Market Response: 'Brexit' vs 'Bremain,' Bloomberg brought together four leading economists to pour over the 'financial market implications of the vote.'
"Clearly, the recent headlines show that the bulls and bears identify strongly with the view that the historic vote will severely affect the country's financial markets.

"But is it true that the vote will cause upheaval in the financial markets?"

You may be wondering the same thing.
That's why we've put together this free report, "The Vote Heard Around the World," featuring EWI Chief European Market Analyst Brian Whitmer.
Brian has been tracking EU break-up signs since he first made a forecast for the Union's coming unraveling back in 2009.
This new report comes right out of Brian's May European Financial Forecast. In it, he asks and answers investors' most pressing questions -- your questions.
Have your Brexit questions answered now -- from a unique, Elliott wave point of view. Get a free copy of "How to Invest for Brexit” now.