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29 November 2009

Elliott Wave Articles


25 November 2009

Prechter 200% Short recommendation

As the Dow did its mini Moon Shot up this morning on news of an increase in new home sales, Prechter took this snapshot of the market and sent out a recommendation to go 200% short. All in. This chart (below) came in his interim EWT today. He also has another chart for those who wish to know why he is timing it now, but I will leave that for subscribers to consider. This gap could be a continuation gap of a strong 3 of 3 wave up, but he bet the opposite, an exhaustion gap.
What influenced him was looking inside the housing report: much of this upside surprise was due to aggressive foreclosures. The growth was almost all in cheap condos, the low end of the market. Also, last month's sales were adjusted DOWN, not a good sign.
So far today he is winning this bet. You have to give him enormous credit for sticking with his analysis despite the slings and arrows of outraged unfortunates.


19 November 2009

Is Your Bank Safe?

More than 130 banks will have failed by the end of 2009.
November 18, 2009

By Gary Grimes

Please understand that this article is about more than safeguarding your money; it's about saving you headache and heartache. It's about giving you peace of mind.
Before I explain, please allow me to ask a few questions:
  • Have you given much thought about the money in your banking accounts lately? Do you know if it's safe?
  • Have you thought about what might happen if your bank fails?
  • Did you know you could be left in the lurch for days, weeks, even months before you get your money back from the FDIC?
  • What happens if the FDIC can't cover your funds?
  • How do you find a safe bank to protect your deposits right now?
I hope you've given these questions some serious thought.
I have to be honest: These questions were about the farthest things from my mind until about a year ago, when I downloaded the free "Safe Banks" report from my colleagues at Elliott Wave International. At first, the report scared me: I thought, "Oh My Gosh! I could lose all of my money if my bank fails. What would I do?"
But as I read on, I figured out that the report was not only about making my money safe; it was about giving me peace of mind.
If you've read any of the following news items, perhaps you understand the fear of learning your money might not be safe. Here's a recent story from Bloomberg:
Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- In May, the FDIC said it was projecting $70 billion of losses during the next five years due to bank failures. The agency said it expects most of those collapses to occur in 2009 and 2010.
The FDIC’s problem is that it didn’t collect enough revenue over the years to cover today’s losses. The blame lies partly with Congress. Until the law was changed in 2006, the FDIC was barred from charging premiums to banks that it classified as well-capitalized and well-managed. Consequently, the vast majority of banks weren’t paying anything for deposit insurance.
Of course, we now know it means nothing when the FDIC or any other regulator labels a bank “well-capitalized.” Most banks that failed during this crisis were considered well-capitalized just before their failure.
By the end of 2009, more than 130 banks will have failed. Most depositors will have little clue their bank was even at risk. Worse yet, the string-pullers in Washington are doing everything in their power to hide information about the safety of your bank from you.
So far, the FDIC has had enough money to cover insured depositors. But that money is quickly running out.
Just last week, the FDIC voted to mandate early payment of insurance premiums to help cover at-risk banks. But only time will tell if this move will provide the funds needed in the years ahead. Here's what the Associated Press reported on Thursday, Nov. 12:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. banks will prepay about $45 billion in premiums to replenish a federal deposit insurance fund now in the red, under a plan adopted Thursday by federal regulators.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board voted to mandate the early payments of premiums for 2010 through 2012. Amid the struggling economy and rising loan defaults, 120 banks have failed so far this year, costing the insurance fund more than $28 billion.
Worse yet, three more banks failed the very next day, Friday, Nov. 13.
This is a very real problem and a direct threat to your money. It's more important now than ever to personally ensure the safety of your bank. The free 10-page "Safe Banks" report can help. It includes the very latest bank safety ratings from the third quarter of 2009 to help you prepare for what's still to come this year and next.
Inside the revealing free report, you'll discover:
  • The 100 Safest U.S. Banks (2 for each state)
  • Where your money goes after you make a deposit
  • How your fractional-reserve bank works
  • What risks you might be taking by relying on the FDIC's guarantee
Please protect your money. Download the free 10-page "Safe Banks" report now.
Learn more about the "Safe Banks" report, and download it for free here.

Gary Grimes focuses on mass psychology, U.S. stocks and the U.S. economy. Gary has a bachelor’s degree in journalism from Auburn University in Auburn, AL, where he was first turned on to the Austrian School of economics by way of the world-famous Mises Institute. His study of classical liberalism eventually led him to discover the Elliott Wave Principle and Robert Prechter’s theory of socionomics.

17 November 2009

Spot a Pattern you Recognize

One Simple Tip for Becoming a Better Trader
July 15, 2009

By Gary Grimes
The following article is adapted from market analysis by Elliott Wave International Chief Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy. Learn more here.
Wave patterns are like beautiful women, classic cars and great art – you know them when you see them.
EWI analyst Jeffrey Kennedy drives this point home during his live Elliott wave trading tutorial. It's my favorite of his tips for trading with Elliott waves.
"Trade the pattern not the count," Jeffrey says.
If you don't recognize a pattern at a glance, don't trade it – plain and simple. After all, your wave count can be wrong; the pattern cannot.
Does that mean you must know the exact wave count at a glance, as well? No. Simply spotting a pattern you recognize is where you should start.
Jeffrey scans hundreds of charts, clicking through them one by one, spending mere seconds with each. If he doesn't spot a pattern he recognizes, a click of his mouse takes him to another potential opportunity.
Does price action look extended or choppy? Is it trading in a channel? Is it forming a wedge or triangle shape? These are some of the signals Jeffrey's looking for. Each could help him identify – at the quickest of glances – whether price action is impulsive or corrective. This is the first critical step, Jeffrey says, to spotting high-confidence, Elliott wave trade setups.
That brings us to the following chart. Do you see a pattern you recognize? I do.

Look at the downward price action; the moves look decisive, almost in straight lines like impulse waves. Now look at the upward moves; they look indecisive and choppy like corrections. There's also one down move that is clearly longer than the others – that's almost certainly a third wave of some degree.
At just a glance, here are a few things we can determine:
  • This is a bearish market pattern, because downward impulses are interrupted by upward corrections.
  • The price action from September to November seems to be a pretty clear wave 3 down, followed by waves 4 up then 5 down, completing what appears to be a larger degree wave 1 in early March.
  • Wave 2 follows wave 1, so the upward move starting in early March is most likely a larger degree wave 2.
  • Wave 3 follows wave 2, so that's what we can expect next.
  • Wave 3 is never the shortest and often the longest of all five waves, so we can expect the next impulse move to take prices to new lows.
You see, with just a quick glance, we've put a finger on the pulse of the market. Negative psychology pulls prices down, and brief reversals of mood result in upward corrections – this appears to be a long-term bear market.
If you can gain this much insight simply by glancing at a chart, just think of what else you can glean by spending more time with it. Look at this pattern within a longer time frame, and you can determine the degree of trend (this one appears to be primary). Formulate Fibonacci price and time targets, and you can be confident about when and where prices will most likely turn.
There are literally hundreds of things you can do with a good chart, but none of them mean much unless you can first identify a pattern you recognize.
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For more information on trading successfully, visit Elliott Wave International to download Jeffrey Kennedy’s free report How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups.

Gary Grimes focuses on mass psychology, U.S. stocks and the U.S. economy. Gary has a bachelor’s degree in journalism from Auburn University in Auburn, AL, where he was first turned onto the Austrian School of economics by way of the world-famous Mises Institute. His study of classical liberalism eventually led him to discover the Elliott Wave Principle and Robert Prechter’s theory of socionomics.

14 November 2009

Hyperinflation Worries Laid to Rest . . . Part I

Hyperinflation Worries Laid to Rest, Part I  11/12/2009   The situation in the U.S. is different from bouts with hyperinflation in Argentina, Mexico and Brazil. It also seems reasonable to examine hyperinflation in another nation -- Zimbabwe -- in order to answer a few important questions...Read More

09 November 2009

What Record High Dollar Volume of Trading Says About Confidence

Finance's Euphoria: The Epilogue -- What Record High Dollar Volume of Trading Says About Confidence
November 6, 2009

The following article was adapted from the November 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and reprinted with permission here. Until Nov. 11, you can read the rest of this brand-new report for free, during Elliott Wave International's FreeWeek of U.S. forecasts. Learn more about FreeWeek, and download the rest of this report and others for free here.
By Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall
When Wall Street’s total value of assets rose to a “mind-boggling 36.6 percent of GDP” in late 2006, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast published a chart of U.S. financial assets literally rising off the page.

The Financial Forecast observed that financial engineers had “found a new object of investor affections—themselves” and asserted that “the financial industry’s position so close to the center of the mania can mean only one thing; it is only a matter of time” before a massive reversal grabbed hold. Financial indexes hit their all-time peak within a matter of weeks, in February. The major stock indexes joined the topping process in October 2007 and in December 2007 the economy followed. Subscribers will recall that one of the most important clues to the unfolding disaster was the level of financial exuberance relative to the fundamental economic performance.
This chart of the value of U.S. trading volume (courtesy of Alan Newman at www.cross-currents.net) reveals that the imbalance is far from corrected.

Incredibly, total dollar trading volume is even higher now than it was in 2007 when the economy was humming along. In June 2008, dollar trading volume also defied an initial thrust lower in stocks and the economy, eliciting this comment from the Financial Forecast:
The chart of dollar trading relative to GDP shows how much more willing investors are to trade shares in companies that operate in an economic environment that is anemic compared to that of the mid-1960s. A basic implication of the Wave Principle is that the public will always show up at the end of a rally, just in time to get clobbered. This chart shows that it is happening in a big, big way now because the market is at the precipice of the biggest decline in a long, long time.
Total dollar volume continues to rise despite further fundamental financial deterioration. Yes, GDP experienced a one-quarter, clunker-aided uptick of 3.5 percent in the third quarter. But the economy is in far worse shape than it was when we made the above statement. In fact, its recent performance on top of the decades-long economic underperformance (which is discussed extensively in Chapter 1 and Appendix E of the new edition of Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash) means that industrial production just experienced its worst decade since 1930-1939. Total manufacturing employment slipped to 11.7 million people, its lowest level since May 1941 when it was 33 percent of all jobs. According to Bianco Research, manufacturing now accounts for only about 9 percent of the workforce. Finance anchors the economy now, which makes it far more susceptible to non-rational dynamics.
As Prechter and Parker explain in “The Financial/Economic Dichotomy” (May 2007, Journal of Behavioral Finance), a financial system is not bound by the laws of supply and demand in the same way that an industrial economy is. In finance, confidence and fear rule decisions. “In the financial context,” say Prechter and Parker, “knowing what you think is not enough; you have to try to guess what everyone else will think.”
We do know one thing: When everyone is thinking the same, the opposite will happen.
Right now, record high dollar volume of trading shows that confidence, at least on this basis, has reached a new historic extreme.

Read the rest of the 10-page November 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast now, when you signup for Elliott Wave International's FreeWeek of U.S. forecasts. FreeWeek ends Nov. 11, so please act now to get an enormous wealth of current market analysis and forecasts -- for free. Learn more about FreeWeek, and download the rest of this report and others for free here.

Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall are co-editors of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.

04 November 2009

This S&P 500 Chart Tells the Two-Part Truth

See for Yourself: This S&P 500 Chart Tells the Two-Part Truth
Have you seen or read ANYTHING like this in the past two weeks?
November 4, 2009

By Robert Folsom
The following text is courtesy of Elliott Wave International. Until Nov. 11, EWI is allowing non-subscribers to download their latest market analysis and forecasts for free, including Robert Prechter's latest Elliott Wave Theorist and Steve Hochberg's and Pete Kendall's latest Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Learn more about FreeWeek, and download your free reports here.

By Robert Folsom, Senior Writer for Elliott Wave International
As you read and look at this page, please know that the chart is the star of the show. My description will add only a few details.
Two Months of Euphoria Produces only 57S&P Points
The chart published less than two weeks ago in Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist. The rectangular box is plain to see: It envelopes the huge S&P 500 rally that began last March -- a gain of 61.5% and 430 points, as of Oct. 18.
But there's a two-part truth to the rally -- and that is what the box really shows.
Part one shows the "wall of worry" -- basically March through August. That's when the media and experts were overwhelmingly negative about stocks. They were surprised by the rally. Remember?
Part two shows the more recent time of "euphoria" -- basically September and October. The media and experts turned positive. The market was all about "green shoots" and "recovery."
You see when most of the rally unfolded. Six months of serious worry produces a 373-point climb, whereas "two months of euphoria produces only 57 S&P points."
Now, the two-part truth about this rally is an easy story to tell. It's literally a few lines and notations on a price chart. Yet have you seen or read ANYTHING like this in the past two weeks? Has anyone else pointed out that over the past two months, the stock market "rally" has in fact slowed to a crawl?
As you looked at the chart, perhaps you noticed that the decline, which began in 2007, and in turn the recent rally, are both on a similarly large scale. The full version of this chart shows how important that "similarity of scale" really is (Elliott labels were excluded in consideration of Theorist subscribers).
Price action in the stock market this week has only strengthened the analysis in Bob Prechter's October Theorist issue.
What's more, you can read the very latest forecasts in the just-published November issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast -- both publications (plus the tri-weekly Short Term Update) are yours for free -- only during FreeWeek (now through Nov. 11).
Learn more about FreeWeek, and download the November Theorist for more about the above chart.

Robert Folsom is a financial writer and editor for Elliott Wave International. He has covered politics, popular culture, economics and the financial markets for two decades, via print, radio and the Internet. Robert earned his degree in political science from Columbia University in 1985.