29 May 2010
There’s only one week left to download Robert Prechter’s free 10-page market letter. Our friends at Elliott Wave International are featuring the free download through June 7.
The free issue, titled “A Deadly Bearish Big Picture,” contains recent research and market analysis that goes beyond the news headlines to give you urgent, independent market forecasts. Prechter’s market outlook has changed dramatically since February of 2009 when he informed hisElliott Wave Theorist subscribers to turn bullish.
The markets have turned more and more volatile by the day, with huge market swings spanning hundreds of points! It’s time to prepare yourself.
Get your FREE copy of Prechter's latest research through June 7 -- Download the Theorist now.
14 May 2010
Prechter Describes The "Stunning Long-Term Elliott Wave Picture"
May 12, 2010
By Robert Folsom, Elliott Wave InternationalPlease join me to consider a time in the stock market that lasted just under three years: 32 months, to be precise.
During this period a series of powerful rallies stand out clearly on a price chart. The shortest of these rallies was four weeks, the longest more than five months.
I can even list seven of these rally episodes, with the number of calendar days and percentage gains.
1. 152 days +52%This information obviously seems to paint a bullish picture: The stock market was in double-digit rally mode during 43% of the total calendar days in question.
2. 28 days +11%
3. 77 days +19%
4. 69 days +27%
5. 31 days +30%
6. 35 days +39%
7. 28 days +27%
But in fact, those rallies were the days when the bear was catching his breath. The market was the Dow Jones Industrials; the overall period was from November 1929 to July 1932. It devastated investors. The Dow lost 80% of its value. Yes, that includes the rallies listed above.
I said that these rallies stand out on a price chart, and indeed they do -- it's just that the declines stand out even more. There's virtually no "sideways" action. Prices moved rapidly in one direction or the other.
You can see the chart for yourself in the first issue (April issue, page 4) of the two-part series Bob Prechter has published in The Elliott Wave Theorist. Part One was in April, "A Deadly Bearish Big Picture." The final sentence of that issue said Part Two "will update the stunning long-term Elliott wave picture."
Bob just published Part Two. It completes the "Big Picture" he has now delivered to subscribers.
The past doesn't "define" the present or the future, but it sure does provide context. No analyst alive today understands this better than Bob Prechter.
Believe me when I say that the charts and analysis in this two-issue series are unique. The word "stunning" only begins to describe what you'll read.
03 May 2010
Bob Prechter Points Out The Many Signs Of Deflation
Yes, You Heard Us Right
April 29, 2010
By Elliott Wave InternationalEverywhere you look, the mainstream financial experts are pinning on their "WIN 2" buttons in a show of solidarity against what they see as the number one threat to the U.S. economy: Whip Inflation Now.
There's just one problem: They're primed to fight the wrong enemy. Fact is, despite ten rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Board to record low levels plus $13 trillion (and counting) in government bailout money over the past three years -- the Demand For and Availability Of credit is plunging. Without a borrower or lender, the massive supply of debt LOSES value, bringing down every exposed investment like one long, toppling row of dominoes.
This is the condition known as Deflation.
Bob Prechter uncovered more than a dozen "value depreciating" developments underway in the U.S. economy as the two main engines of credit expansion sputter: Banks and Consumers. Here's a preview of his findings contained the free report, The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read in 2010:
- A riveting chart of Treasury Holdings as a Percentage of US Chartered Bank Assets since 1952 shows how "safe" bank deposits really are. In short: today's banks are about 95% invested in mortgages via the purchase of federal agency securities. Unlike Treasuries, IOU's with homes as collateral have "tremendous potential" to fall in dollar value.
- Loan Availability to Small Businesses has fallen to the lowest level since the interest rate crises of 1980. In Bob Prechter's own words: "The means of debt repayment [via business growth] are evaporating, which implies further deflationary pressure within the banking system."
- An all-inclusive close-up of the Number Of Banks Tightening Their Lending Standards since 1997 has this message to impart: Since peaking in October 2008, lending restrictions have soared, thereby significantly reducing the overall credit supply.
- Both residential and commercial mortgages are plummeting as home/business owners walk away from their leases at an increasing rate.
- The major sources of bank revenue -- consumer credit and state taxes -- are plunging as more people opt to pay DOWN their debt. Also, a compelling chart of leveraged buyouts since 1995 shows a third catalyst for the credit binge -- private equity -- on the decline.