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18 October 2013

How to Find Trading Opportunities

How to Find Trading Opportunities in ANY Market
Learn ways to spot trading opportunities using wave analysis and other technical analysis methods

By Elliott Wave International

Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy is the editor of our Elliott Wave Junctures and one of our most popular instructors. Jeffrey's primary analytical method is the Elliott Wave Principle, but he also uses several other technical tools to supplement his analysis.
In this trading lesson, Jeffrey demonstrates how to determine when an Elliott wave trade setup becomes a trade.
You can apply these methods across any market and timeframe.

Lesson 1: Ready, Aim ... Fire: Knowing When to Place a Trade
A very important question you need to answer if you are going to use the Wave Principle to identify high-confidence trade setups is, "When does a wave count become a trade?"
To answer this question, let me draw upon the steps required to fire a firearm:
Step 1 (Ready) -- Hold the rifle or pistol still...very still.
Step 2 (Aim) -- Focus and align your sights.
Step 3 (Fire) -- Pull the trigger without tensing your hand.
If you follow these steps, you should at least hit what you're aiming at, and, with a little practice, you should hit the target's bull's-eye more often than not.
As an Elliottician and a trader, I employ a similar three-step approach to decide when to place a trade. Figure 1 shows a schematic diagram of a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave decline -- let's call it a Zigzag. The picture these waves illustrate is what I call the Ready stage.
In Figure 2, prices are moving upward as indicated by the arrow. At this stage, I begin to aim as I watch price action to see if it will confirm my wave count by moving in the direction determined by my labeling.
Once prices do indeed begin to confirm my wave count, I then determine the price level at which I will pull the trigger and Fire (that is, initiate a trade). And, as you can see in Figure 3, that level is the extreme of wave B.
Why do I wait for the extreme of wave B of a Zigzag to give way before initiating a position? Simple. By waiting, I allow the market time to either prove or disprove my wave count. Moreover, once the extreme of wave B is exceeded, it leaves behind a three-wave decline from the previous extreme.
As you probably know, three-wave moves are corrections, according to the Wave Principle, and as such, are destined to be more than fully retraced once complete. An additional bonus of this approach is that it allows me to easily and confidently determine an initial protective stop, the extreme of wave C.
Remember, all markets have a wave count; however, not all wave counts offer a trading opportunity. So the next time you think you have a wave count, rather than just blindly jumping in, first steady yourself, wait while you aim, and then -- if price action does indeed confirm your wave count -- pull the trigger.
Also, it is important to note that this is my way of applying the Wave Principle practically, but it's by no means the only way.

If you are ready for more lessons on how to become a more successful technical trader, get Jeffrey Kennedy's free report, 6 Lessons to Help You Spot Trading Opportunities in Any Market.
Jeffrey has taught thousands how to improve their trading through his online courses, his international speaking engagements, and in his trader education service Elliott Wave Junctures.
This free report includes 6 different lessons that you can apply to your charts immediately. Learn how to spot and act on trading opportunities in the markets you follow, starting now!
Access Your Free Report Now >>
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How to Find Trading Opportunities in ANY Market. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

08 August 2013

Trend Changes in Financial Markets: 7 Key Market Calls

Trend Changes in Financial Markets: 7 Key Market Calls
A record of spotting major market turns most investors miss

By Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International is dedicated to helping subscribers anticipate the next major market turn. No, we don't always "get it right" - yet the examples below speak for themselves.

1. In 2005, EWI called the 2006 real estate turn.

Some say real estate can't go down because far too many people are concerned about a real estate bubble, a worry that is now even greater than it was for stocks at the March 2000 NASDAQ peak ... it is actually another sign of a top when participants are dismissive of the warnings.

The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, July 2005

House prices peaked in July 2006. By April 2012, the Associated Press reported, "Home prices have fallen 35% since the housing bust."

2. In 2007, EWI called the stock market turn.

Aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position now. We may be early by a couple of weeks, but the market has traced out the minimum expected rise, and that's enough to act upon.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, Interim Report, July 17, 2007

Those aggressive speculators were rewarded. From an Oct. 9, 2007, high of 14,164, the Dow Industrials tumbled to 6,547 by March 9, 2009.

3. In 2008, EWI called the crude oil turn.

Less than six weeks before the $147 high in the price of oil, the June 2008 Financial Forecast observed that "The case for an end in oil's rise is growing even stronger." The chart below was published in that issue:

Note that the sentiment index on the chart shows bullish sentiment reaching 90%.

By December 2008, the price of oil had declined 80%.

4. In 2011, EWI called the retracement high in the CRB Index.

The CRB index has reached the upper end of its corrective-wave trend channel while simultaneously reaching a Fibonacci 50% (1/2) retracement of the 2008-2009 decline, as it completes an A-B-C rally. This index should soon begin another wave down that takes it below the 2009 low.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2011

The CRB index topped less than four months later.

5. In 2012, EWI called the turn in gas prices.

The rush to extrapolate [rising prices] is all we need to conclude that the odds of ... gasoline prices going to the moon are extremely low.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, April 2012

Gasoline prices topped during the same month that issue published.

6. In 2009, EWI called the turn in stocks.

The majority of investors thought that the period from October 10 to year-end 2008 was a major market bottom. But over the past four months The Elliott Wave Theorist, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and the Short Term Update have repeatedly stated, without equivocation, that the market required a fifth wave down. There were no alternate counts. The Wave Principle virtually guaranteed lower lows, and now we have them.

I recommend covering our short position at today's close.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, Special Investment Issue, Feb. 23, 2009

The Dow Industrials hit a major low just 10 days later!

7. In 2012, EWI called the trend change in bond yields.

Investors' waxing fears will cause them to start selling bonds, which will lead to lower bond prices and higher yields. ....

If rates do begin to rise as we expect, most observers will probably be fooled.

The Elliott Wave Theorist and Financial Forecast, Special Report, June 2012

On July 5, 10-year bond yields climbed to 2.72%, its highest level since July 2011.

In each of these forecasts, the consensus opinion was on the opposite side. Most investors never saw these major trend changes coming. Again, we're not perfect -- no forecasting service is.

Come see what we see.


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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Trend Changes in Financial Markets: 7 Key Market Calls. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


30 June 2013

Bearish Gold and Silver

Stunning Chart Shows Gold and Silver Defy Bulls' Optimism

By Elliott Wave International

Gold and silver have been all over the financial news.

On Thursday, June 20, silver fell below $20 (-60% from 2011 high), and gold fell below $1300 (-30% from 2011 high).

We first published the chart below after metals plunged in mid-April. It shows EWI's forecasts not only leading up to those big moves ... but during the past three years of opportunity.

Three years of volatile price action in these two markets is plain to see. And the forecasts speak for themselves.

Overwhelmingly, most metals experts favored the other side of the gold and silver trend for the past three years - and they still do today. Meanwhile, EWI subscribers were prepared ahead of time for nearly every important turn.

Now, some periods are more vexing than others. But currently we are in a period where the wave patterns are particularly clear.

Metals prices may bounce higher near-term - like we warned they would do after the April 16-18 lows - but the quotes on the chart clearly show how countertrends are the source of opportunity. And that is the great strength of pattern analysis via the Elliott wave method, along with tools like sentiment, momentum and price.

For a limited time you can see the full story in metals in a free report from EWI. See below for more details.


FREE Gold Video from Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International forecasted nearly every major trend and turn of the past three years in gold and silver. If you invest in precious metals, you owe it to yourself to see how we got to where we are today. In a 10-minute video titled Gold Defies Bulls' Optimism, Elliott Wave International's Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg lays out what has transpired in gold since 2011 so you can understand where it's headed next.

Click Here to See the Video Now -- It's FREE by joining the largest Elliott wave community at no cost >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Stunning Chart Shows Gold and Silver Defy Bulls' Optimism. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


26 March 2013


Greece: A Gathering Storm Threatens Europe and America

By Elliott Wave International/the Socionomics Institute

The similarities between Greece and pre-WWII Germany are striking.

  • Nazi salutes.
  • Praise for Adolf Hitler.
  • Swastika-like banners.

Now, before you write off this warning as a run-of-the-mill, Nazi-name-dropping scare tactic, consider this recent report from the Socionomics Institute, a U.S.-based think tank that studies global trends in social mood. Here's an excerpt from the Institute's February publication of The Socionomist.

A rising political party known as Golden Dawn is resurrecting such practices, all hallmarks of Hitler's Third Reich, in modern-day Greece, which has suffered a dramatic, five-year stock market decline.

From 1927 to 1932, Germany suffered a disastrous stock market decline, falling 73% over five years. Six million people were unemployed, and the government was weak. Germany suffered outside financial pressure in the form of reparations required by the Versailles Treaty and consequences of its involvement in World War I.

Adolf Hitler argued that the German government betrayed its people by signing the Versailles Treaty. He promised that if he were elected, the nation would stop paying the reparations. The position appealed to the German people's anger and helped the Nazi leader become chancellor in January 1933.

Modern-day Greece has experienced an even larger five-year decline than 1920s-1930s Germany did, falling 88% since 2007, and the country has suffered a debt crisis. As a condition for bailouts aimed at helping Greece recover, the European Union has imposed tough austerity measures. The Greek government has implemented the measures. Meanwhile, the deepening negative social mood has fueled protests against them.

Nikos Zydakis, editor of the daily newspaper Kathimerini, says Greece is in an economic depression like that experienced by Germany in the 1930s. More than 90% of Greek households have experienced income reductions, with the average drop 38%. Unemployment in Greece now stands at a record 26.8% and is nearly 60% among Greece's young adults. In November the Greek Parliament imposed tax hikes and spending cuts demanded by creditors. Supermarket sales in the country declined by 500 million euros ($669 million) last year, and people are burning wood because the price of electricity has risen and taxes on heating oil have increased.

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme," goes an old saying attributed to American author Mark Twain. And new research from the Socionomics Institute sees a disturbing pattern of rhymes between modern-day Greece and pre-WWII Germany.

To be sure, market and political developments in Greece will have a significant impact on the future of Europe, the Americas and beyond.


The Socionomics Institute is an independent research firm devoted to the study of social mood and social action. As a partner to the world's largest market forecasting firm, Elliott Wave International, the Institute puts the most important developing social trends around the world into context with Robert Prechter's socionomic theory, which posits that social mood drives social action (not the other way around).

Read the rest the Institute's new February report to learn more about the developing threats out of Greece. The full report is available for free as part of a special promotion run by the Institute with EWI. Follow this link to read the full February issue of The Socionomist (a $19 value) - for free.






12 March 2013

09 February 2013

Housing Market Recovery


The Expected Housing Recovery Faces a Brick Wall
Re-emergent house flippers are set to flop.

By Elliott Wave International

In 2005, a mania for residential real estate reached such a fever pitch that a series of cable television shows became entirely devoted to house "flipping."

Flipping involves buying a worse-for-wear house, making the minimum repairs necessary, then turning right around and selling it - ideally for a fast and handsome profit.

Two years before the housing bust became painfully obvious to U.S. homeowners, EWI's publications warned subscribers that the housing market had reached extremes and was about to bust.

There's no mistaking it now: Extreme psychology ... has taken up residence in real estate. ...

A significant percentage of the population does not know that a return to earth is implicit in [real estate's] pole-vault to record heights.

The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, July 2005

That issue published around the time the S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index peaked.

The index bottomed in late 2008. Since then, the index moved sideways into late 2011 and in 2012 staged a modest rebound. Take a look at this chart from the November Financial Forecast (wave labels removed):

The outburst of over-the-top enthusiasm for home buying turned out to be a great sell signal. The Homebuilding Index lost more than 85% over the next 40 months. The rise from its November 2008 low appears to be a ... countertrend rally. ... Near-term excitement has definitely risen.

Financial Forecast, November 2012

As you might expect, the rebound is accompanied by a rise in expectations for a real estate recovery.

The head of the world's largest asset management firm sees more than just higher home prices ahead; he sees a return to 2005 levels.

As the inventory of unsold U.S. homes drops to a more manageable level, the U.S. housing industry is inching closer to a complete rebound, [said] BlackRock CEO.

CNBC, Oct. 4

By looking at the chart, you can see how much farther prices have to climb before achieving a "complete rebound."

What's more, home flippers have returned.

Property Flippers Are Back as Housing's Middle Men

Yahoo Finance, Oct. 15

Is it safe again to speculate in U.S. real estate? How should you handle loans and other debt? Should you rely on the government agencies to protect your finances? You can get answers to these and many more questions in Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash. And you can get 8 chapters of this landmark book -- free. See below for details.


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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Expected Housing Recovery Faces a Brick Wall. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.